There is an unknown in the race, not unknown person, per se, but a potential Nader-effect, named after the often electoral irritant Ralph Nader who for years, cycle after cycle has been a thorn in the side of many presidential candidates. Although Nader, normally leading the revolution was somewhat out Nadered this year with Ron Paul’s revolution for liberty, the Libertarian Party has maneuvered for their moment in the sun as well.
Keep your eye on the ballots and exit polls for at least 47 states and D.C. as the Libertarian Party has managed to meet the requirements to get themselves added with former Governor of New Mexico, Gary Johnson at the helm. The news is somewhat mixed considering the Governor is not polling well enough in his own state to thwart Obama’s double digit lead over Romney in the state but his presence may very well pick off some much needed votes in Colorado, a battle ground state and Nevada, yet another must win battleground.
Johnson and his party are currently working to get the selves on the final 3 states but there may be some setbacks for example a Michigan Judge ruled Johnson may not be permitted to join the state’s ballot considering he campaigned earlier in the cycle as a republican, now listed as a Libertarian.
Although Obama, the Democratic nominee in 2008, took the state of North Carolina from the hands of the republicans, normally a GOP stronghold, the result of that race had everything to do with the Libertarian Party, at that time led by former Georgia congressman Bob Barr who picked off enough republican votes to tip the state Obama’s direction.
And it is for that reason that eyes should stay fixed on Governor Johnson this time around and I am certain the GOP is doing just that considering Romney is currently moving in the right direction in Colorado…Johnson could very well take the wind out of their sails. That’s my story and um sticking to it.
An increasingly Hispanic demographic, historically the electorate has trended politically for republicans only flipping twice in forty years for a democratic nominee in a presidential race; bill Clinton in 1992 and Obama in 2008. Mr. Obama capitalized through his Hispanic outreach and highly effective ground game to tip the scales his way.
In 2012, Colorado will be a toss up between GOP nominee, Mitt Romney and the incumbent in The White House, President Barack Obama. His efforts from 2008 cannot be overstated, however in Colorado, a true battleground, no election cycle is like the previous. The candidate’s mettle must be tested each time around.
Colorado also has a strong evangelical presence that’s carried the water for conservatives for many years however, this year their effect has been mute with the nomination of a Mormon to the top of either parties ticket. The 2008 and 2012 elections have less to do about religion than any race in modern memory due to more of a demographic shift and less of an ideological shift.
Colorado’s economy is stronger than most, but foreclosures, unemployment and immigration policy concerns have not escaped the state. Although the Governor, Lt. Governor, and both U.S. Senators are Democrats, that has no bearing on how likely this race will decide who wins the presidency. With former New Mexico Governor, Gary Johnson gaining the nomination for President from the Libertarian Party, with 3% of the vote in the state, he has caused the race between the two major parties closer than ever with 47% to 46%, Obama to Romney respectively.
Both presidential candidates would love to put this state in its column on election night. Beyond the mere 9 electoral votes the winner of the stands to pocket into their fold, both candidates have spends enormous amounts of money to woo the state through advertising dollars, commercials and etc. Colorado represents the middle of the electorate that both Romney and Obama has been forced to court this election cycle. So disregard the nine electoral votes, they represent so much more against the backdrop on election night. It could very well be the difference between rising above the 50% threshold to claim the mandate or shuffling into the Oval as a lame duck president. That’s my story and um sticking to it.
With the state’s senior Senator, Harry Reid also serving as the Senate Majority Leader and a democrat in The White house, you would think that Nevada, rich with unionized labor would be safely out of the grasp of the GOP and the Romney-Ryan ticket…not so.
Although President Obama has sat at the top of just about every poll conducted this year, there are vulnerabilities that plague his chances to comfortably put the state in his win column like harnessing the nation’s highest unemployment rate, there are no guarantees.
The President is doing well among his second largest voting block, Hispanics, the largest block of his base in Nevada due to their overwhelming growth. One hidden advantage to Obama, a rarely spoken of Libertarian Party which has managed to make it on the ballot in 47 states including Nevada. Former New Mexico Governor, Gary Johnson has surged in the state as of late keeping the state in the toss-up category and unlikely to go for Romney, an unexpected jewel the GOP would love to get away from the Dems.
What makes this a huge get, not to mention a competitive race is the states large Mormon population. Mitt Romney, if elected, would be the first Mormon to ascend to the presidency and if Nevada’s Mormon faithful could help the republican make history, they would be beyond honored.
Romney’s only challenge will be Clark County (Las Vegas) and Washoe County (Reno). Both were easy gets for Obama in the last cycle- two-thirds of the state’s votes came from these two counties. With Senator Reid’s enormous mobilization efforts, Romney’s got some work to do, but since the battleground is set, Dems cannot be careless. That’s my story and um sticking to it.