Could Romney Win?
The short answer to that question is a resounding yes. The gaps in the polls are closing. As we all learned in 2008, the candidate believing in their own inevitability is often dispatched much earlier in the process because they never see the true obvious strengths of their opponent and challenger, i.e. Hillary Clinton vs. Obama.
This race has shifted dramatically in one week in such a way, the polls will need just as many days to weigh through the muck and gage the “true intent” of those polled. Sounds eerily like Florida Bush v. Gore 2000 where voting officials in Florida’s election were searching pregnant and dimpled chads to determine the intent of the voter.
Polls are clearly all over the place, but with that said, toss caution to the wind and look only to the facts as we currently know them. Last Wednesday, during the first of three presidential debates, President Obama, who rarely stumbles, fell flat on his face. Everyone, including us the PoliticianNextDoor.com have opined and beat the dead horse to a pulp in our analysis, but the end result is Obama didn’t just lose that debate conversation, Romney won.
So now, the game has seen a reset but let’s start with Thursday’s post debate circus. The polls, Romney campaign funding and experienced political strategists had immediately concluded the Romney offensive, however inaccurate to the known facts and void of any substantive data, had reopened the window of opportunity which had just weeks before had been closed and nailed shut because of Romney’s September gaffe machine.
According to the HuffingtonPost, the tracking suggests an all entirely different race, yet with the same fundamentals and characteristics prior to the debate. Their tracking shows races across the electoral map tightening with some actually shifting away from Obama. What cannot be determined yet is will there be a trend. Will these numbers remain day after day once the some clears from the mirrors?
Focus your eye on the battleground states Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Missouri for a moment. Those states represent some shiftings away from Obama. North Carolina, not so much; it has been a volatile race from the beginning. The state went for Obama in 2008 and the President is still looking to hold onto it, hence the location of the Democratic National Convention this year. However, Romney has kept the state in play forcing Obama back more than his campaign had hoped would be necessary.
Missouri, could likely affect the control of the U.S. Senate may benefit from the current stae of the race one way or the other. If Obama is riding high in the polls or merely holding a lead beyond the margin of error, Sen. Claire McCaskill, the democratic incumbent, could coast to re-election on the President’s coat tails. If under performing, Romney’s strong resurgence could thwart her turnout affecting the down ballot races tilting the control of the Senate.
Florida, more than just a statistical tie, the race there is virtually dead-even; mere tenths of a percentage point. Who wants to relive the Florida debacle? To think it could come down to that if other states are too close to call on election night. Obama’s easy presidential race was last cycle. If he wanted a cruise to victory, last cycle was as close as he would ever come to that. State by state, the margins are razor thin.
Nationally, the race is typically where is was before the debate, however if you go inside the numbers and begin to rake them down, toy can easily find a path to victory for Romney that did not exist as recent as one week ago. Could Romney win? Absolutely. The race will be won in the battlegrounds. Today, Obama is still likely to win close to 260-263 electoral votes, anywhere from 6-10 electoral votes shy of the needed 270 to win the presidency so in essence the race is still his to lose.
With that said, Obama can’t afford another showing like the one he had last week. Also, the once “unnecessary” and formal Vice Presidential Debates between Paul Ryan, the GOP nominee and Vice President Joe Biden now has taken on a whole new purpose. It could show the hidden strength of Team Romney’s campaign or it could show the obvious weakness in the details of the challenger’s policies.
This next debate between Ryan and Biden could give Americans a chance to imagine one of these guys serving as the next Vice President of the United States. Biden could reset the campaign by picking up after his bosses poor showing or Ryan could drop the ball in a Palin-esque kid of way.
Romney could begin to walk away with this race in the next two weeks, right in the nick of time. He could see a growing swell of support through his tactics to appear as the victim. They are calling Obama a supporter of trickle down economics, huh? No democrat supports that, however, if you say it first, it must be true. This is what knocked Obama off his game. Romney lobbed Obama attacks back on Obama before he could ever utter them.
It’s a dangerous game; politics. The pieces on the table are the individual lives of Americans and the way they choose to live them. On the table is the rate of employment and access up the social ladder if one is desired. Also game piece on the table is the right to receive the basic of healthcare and disability support for those who cannot do for themselves.
Sad, to have your life and the way you live it be considered a game piece; a pawn. However there will be one winner and one loser in the presidential contest. One of these guys will win that race and Romney is just as poised to carry the day as Mr. Obama. Beyond that however, the nation only go in the direction of those who vote for that trajectory. The majority wins and winner takes all. Literally. That’s my story and um sticking to it.
PoliticianNextDoor.com
Antron Johnson
9Days/9 Ways: BATTLEGROUND COLORADO
An increasingly Hispanic demographic, historically the electorate has trended politically for republicans only flipping twice in forty years for a democratic nominee in a presidential race; bill Clinton in 1992 and Obama in 2008. Mr. Obama capitalized through his Hispanic outreach and highly effective ground game to tip the scales his way.
In 2012, Colorado will be a toss up between GOP nominee, Mitt Romney and the incumbent in The White House, President Barack Obama. His efforts from 2008 cannot be overstated, however in Colorado, a true battleground, no election cycle is like the previous. The candidate’s mettle must be tested each time around.
Colorado also has a strong evangelical presence that’s carried the water for conservatives for many years however, this year their effect has been mute with the nomination of a Mormon to the top of either parties ticket. The 2008 and 2012 elections have less to do about religion than any race in modern memory due to more of a demographic shift and less of an ideological shift.
Colorado’s economy is stronger than most, but foreclosures, unemployment and immigration policy concerns have not escaped the state. Although the Governor, Lt. Governor, and both U.S. Senators are Democrats, that has no bearing on how likely this race will decide who wins the presidency. With former New Mexico Governor, Gary Johnson gaining the nomination for President from the Libertarian Party, with 3% of the vote in the state, he has caused the race between the two major parties closer than ever with 47% to 46%, Obama to Romney respectively.
Both presidential candidates would love to put this state in its column on election night. Beyond the mere 9 electoral votes the winner of the stands to pocket into their fold, both candidates have spends enormous amounts of money to woo the state through advertising dollars, commercials and etc. Colorado represents the middle of the electorate that both Romney and Obama has been forced to court this election cycle. So disregard the nine electoral votes, they represent so much more against the backdrop on election night. It could very well be the difference between rising above the 50% threshold to claim the mandate or shuffling into the Oval as a lame duck president. That’s my story and um sticking to it.
PoliticianNextDoor.com
Antron Johnson
9 Days/9 Ways: BATTLEGROUND NORTH CAROLINA
Selected for the site of Democratic National Convention solely for the fact that it was a battleground state that Mr. Obama won handedly in 2008. Normally a red state, a GOP fixture, but Obama found a way to peel away the enough conservative as well as expand the democratic voter registration to take it for himself.
Republicans think 2008 was an anomaly and that in the 2012 cycle, North Carolina will return to its red DNA. Some polls show they may be right. While Obama has performed well, better than expected, it’s likely, republicans happen bounced back to mend broken fences in the Tar Heel state. It’s a mixed bag; N.C. residents have shot down several DNC platform issues while still viewing the President favorably.
If an opinion by PoliticanNextDoor.com was warranted here, republicans in 2008 were simply caught off guard with Obama’s ascendency and methodical dispatching of the Clinton Machine. Before an offensive could be waged against someone other than Clinton Obama had a firm footing in the most populous of the states 100 counties.
African-American turnout will be critical this fall, and so will the performance of the state’s two biggest counties: Mecklenburg County, where Democrats recently held their convention in Charlotte, and Raleigh’s fast-growing and Democratic-trending Wake County. Obama won both by big margins in 2008.
Currently, Romney is leading within the margin of error for most polls in the state although Team Obama is fighting for voter turnout. Thats my story and um sticking to it.
PoliticianNextDoor.com
Antron Johnson
Economy Will Recover Regardless of Winner
GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney made what some would have believed was a wild and far reaching prediction during his acceptance speech two weeks ago that “…a Romney Administration would create 12 million jobs during his four years in Office”. Okay, even I twisted up my lips and slanted my eyes toward the television screen as he uttered this silly projection in shameful disbelief and monumental distrust.
What do I know? Apparently not much considering economist now publicly state the economy could create 12 million jobs in the next four years regardless of who wins the White House in November.
Mitt Romney, the presidential nominee for the republicans and his running mate, Congressman Ryan had both inserted this prediction in their campaign stump speeches the week prior to their arrival at the GOP convention and they both continued to use the claim since. However, their prediction, has nothing to do with their prescribed policies or how different they may be from President Obama economic policies. Instead economist believe strongly, that both policy platforms can actually do more to hurt than help.
“Most forecasts for employment growth are very close to 12 million over the next four years regardless of who wins the presidency,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody’s Analytics. Creating that many jobs in the next four years “is very doable,” he said.
Forecasts whether they be regarding fiscal matters or growth have a way of appearing politically as broken promises. Obama learned that the hard way when he made several economic predictions that due in large part to the global meltdown in Europe and Asia failed to manifest and ultimate became a drag on an already struggling economy here at home. Mr. Obama predicted the unemployment rate would stay above 8% after the stimulus was enacted, yet we are embarking currently on thirty months above that level, the longest stretch of this kind in generations.
The President also believed the private sector would have been able to produce millions of what he called on the 2008 campaign trail, green jobs, but even with hundreds of billions of dollars of tax payer money, those industries have yet to deliver the goods as once initially hoped. So for that reason, The White House has stayed out of the prediction-business and focused instead on lining up policies to encourage the growth they foresee.
The Romney-Ryan duo have appeared to dismiss the likely pitfalls Obama encountered when the President stepped too far out and are attempting to seize on his prediction silence as an opportunity to wedge themselves in front of the American people with a plan for reducing corporate regulations and tax burdens on small business as well as ramping up international trade. Team Romney is selling it as the countries only alternative to create jobs when in fact, these jobs are likely to return to the job market regardless of who wins in November.
The President is right to pushback on his claims that “these are the same policies that were attempted under the previous administration. They didn’t work then and they won’t work now”, however armed with a strong economic message and hopes for a plan to get America working again, voters are at least willing to listen to Mr. Romney.
Let’s give Romney some credit, he has nothing to lose my making economic predictions mired in a proverbial quick sand. If his ticket for the presidency is not punch in the winner’s circle on November 6th, it won’t matter what he said on the campaign trail. Not much would be remembered in the way of details, only major political positions and stances, and those won’t be be discussed anymore. So he and Ryan are encouraged to lob as many predictions, fact less factoids and down right lies to create distance between themselves and the President with hopes of winning over the small percentage of undecideds.
It hasn’t been so long ago that our country created the number of jobs all these folks project. The last time was under President Clinton’s first term in the Oval, after the first Bush presidency created a small recession…(no pattern intended). Clinton saw 12 million jobs create a robust economy, post gulf war…(again, no pattern intended).
To get here, Romney will need 250,000 a month beginning the first quarter of 2013 (although not likely), to end the war in Afghanistan to save on the $2 billion a week our nation is spending (although not likely considering Romney has no plan to bring the troops home and does not even discuss the ongoing war), and keep some of those regulations and taxes that he wants to cut considering many of them represent revenue; regulations come with fees paid to the federal government (although not likely because they are contrary to his campaign promises and the GOP party platform.
Clinton got it done by raising taxes after Bush 41 left office and creating and stiffening corporate regulations in a time of peace at home. He didn’t have to add in war expenditures on the annual budget sheet as Obama does today. In order to meet our needs here at home, the U.S. needs to create nearly 190,000 jobs per month, we are currently puttering along at a mere 127,000 a month. Under George W. Bush, 43, the country produced a paltry 11,000 a month which begs to question, where were these concerned politicians then?
Although possible, 12 million jobs are not likely to his our economy. Politics will continue to stunt our economic growth. Things that could’ve served as catalysts toward a strong recovery empowered shot down by republicans in many cases to keep the economy where it is under this president with the hopes of defeating him after one term as an economic failure. The damage that has done to this economy will take years to rebound from, but the rotten political culture that has grown around it like a weed has choked the optimism out of all the hope once felt. It will get much worse politically, before it gets better fiscally. That’s my story and um sticking to it.
PoliticianNextDoor.com
Antron Johnson
An Obama Bounce or Bump?
Could it be?…what go’eth thou?…to even our amazement at PoliticianNextDoor.com, it appears President Obama and the Democratic Party are getting what some have considered a post convention bounce.
On Friday, Sept. 7, Gallup Daily tracking update puts Obama’s job approval rating at 52%, the highest it has been since May 2011, after the killing of Osama bin Laden. Obama has also moved to a 48% to 45% lead over Mitt Romney among registered voters in the election tracking, up from Obama’s 47% to 46% margin over the last nine days.
This is huge because the fallout from Obama’s acceptance speech had been mixed with regard delivery, however the american people have a different opinion from us talking heads and typing hands. They have determined that Mr. Obama trounced his GOP counterparts, at least for now.
Days before the GOP, I wrote that 2012 would be the “Year of the Zero Bounce”, and that was most certainly true for the republicans party presentation down in Tampa two weeks ago. Gallup does not track other measures on Romney that would be comparable to the job approval figure for Obama.
Dems were worried that the release of the August job report numbers showing the U.S. created fewer jobs than anticipated would be the ail in the coffin after such a great convention, and although Romney pounced on it yesterday on a campaign stop, Gallup, for now, indicates the voters see it another way. The real story will be more evident next week as polling comes in from the convention followup. Whether it be a bump or a bounce, it all could vaporize over the next few days putting the race back into a dead heat as we projected earlier.
However, there is always a HUGE “IF”. So, what IF the President gains traction and discovers a path to maintaining 52% approval rating, the Romney folks could see the sands of time working against them. The worst thing that could happen to an opponent is to have the American people become familiar with seeing the incumbent in the lead. When that happens, there is nothing Team Romney will be able to do, barring an abysmal performance by Obama, that will keep the light on the path for Romney.
Convention Over: Jobs Report Numbers? UPDATE
Update: August Jobs numbers came out this morning and were not the cat’s meow! Although the market rallied yesterday enforce the President’s speech in Charlotte, where he accepted his parties’ nomination for his re-election, some believed that was an indication of a more positive jobs number from the Labor Department.
However, to the contrary, the U.S. created only 96,000 new private sector jobs in the month of August, well below the projected 125,000 which was projected two days ago and an uptick from the initial 100,000 first expected by analyst earlier in the month. It may be likely that the Fed will begin looking at alternative forms of additional stimulus to keep the growth moving in the right direction.
“The bottom line is we are where we’ve been for a long time,” said David Kelly, chief market strategist at J.P. Morgan Funds, of Friday’s jobs report. “We are moving forward slowly. The economy is in no danger of stalling, but nor does it seem to be taking off,” he said.
Republicans will undoubtedly continue to use the “…failed economics…” refrain they have for months, however, slow growth is way better than no growth, which is exactly what the conservatives left in their wake in 2008. That’s my story and um sticking to it!
PoliticianNextDoor.com
Antron Johnson
Now with both conventions over, both parties have formalized their candidate representation, now on to the business of the leadership. The president leaves the stage with high hopes and based on the response of the delegates in the hall and those standing by, in the morning, the news outlets and voters will be faced with the hard truth…did the country meets its expected job numbers for the month of August?
Ironically, While the world awaits the numbers, the President already knows exactly what they are. This president who just lit up the convention hall in Charlotte with his acceptance of parties nomination is already ahead of the game and is already planning tomorrow’s message once the numbers are released. It is routine for the Labor Department to brief the White House Council of Economic Advisers the afternoon before the job report is released.
Each month, the Department of Labor releases what is known as the jobs report. The purpose is to document the country’s gains or losses in a monthly report. This report is often used as a guide by the investment markets to project consumer confidence, spending, and American optimism.
This time of the election cycle however, job reports are used by either party as an affirmation of a job well done by the executive occupying the Oval or a noose around the neck of the incumbent. Based on data that comes into the Labor Dept, these monthly projections have weight, we sometimes in my opinion place too much weight on those projections.
For example, although the markets would love to see jobs numbers higher than Labor expects, they are just as excited, especially now, to simply enjoy any amount of jobs added above 100,000 considering it was only 3 years ago that the nations workforce was shrinking 700,000 jobs per month.
Republicans would love to pounce on the President if the jobs numbers are below expectations. I believe, even if expectations are met, the GOP crew will still find a way to hold him responsible for only 163,000. The investment market is pretty safe unless the numbers come in at or around 50,000, however no one expects such a low number.
As we talked last week in my post “The Economy…Enough Lip Service”, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted in a speech that he and the Fed were prepared to move forward with more stimulus, likely from adjusting interest rates, (although it’s already at zero). You better know, that if the numbers are going to shift the market negatively, the Fed will act and soon.
Earlier this week, economist had projected a net gain of 120,000 jobs for the month of August. As of yesterday, that number had been adjusted to include 5,000 not originally factored in bringing the total of anticipated jobs created in the country in the month of August to 125,000. Clearly, this may be boring to most, however this affects the purchase power of this nation as well as its citizens.
As confetti fell tonight on the convention stage with the First Family and the Bidens standing front and center, the numbers were rolling around in the head of Mr. Obama and depending on what those results for August were, it could truly serve as the gravy for the close of the campaigns good week down in Charlotte as well as become the talk of the Sunday morning tv lineup. That’s my story and um sticking to it.
PoliticianNextDoor.com
Antron Johnson
Day Two: Goal? defeat the billion dollar man
The GOP has built a Billion dollar campaign to retake the ability to govern from the right. For the third month in a row republicans have out raised the Dems with a colossal intake of $100 million dollars…in one month.
Never in the history of political campaigns for the presidency has the incumbent ever been outspent for The White House. It would also be fair that I mention never in history has their ever been an African American in Oval as the incumbent either.
Tonight, the DNC will do their very best to solidify their investment into Obama, with the golden boy of the 90′s, former president Bill Clinton leading the charge. This race is no longer about money contrary to popular opinion. This race is instead about getting the most energized base out on election day. The money spent is just a way to muddy the waters, almost as significant as military counter measures.
The team with the most cash on hand historically, was believed to be the team to win the race…not anymore. Today, modern media outlets and ad hoc journalism has moved the race metrics in another direction. The Dems need cash to keep the waters moving. The GOP has been able to financially dispatch PACs (political action committees-groups not “affiliated” with the campaign, but works to advance the campaign’s agenda with outside help and outside money) to confuse and distort history and complicate the message; with tons of cash, who needs facts?
Dems have been working to counter the muddy message from Romney surrogates and those PACs. Tonight, DAY TWO of the DNC convention is going to have to be as strong on message, delivery, connecting to the tv audience, all while allowing the cameras in the hall to capture each moment for reruns on the cable networks.
Bill Clinton only has to be himself tonight; a man of the people. He has to continue to do the heavy lifting for the Obama’s extended stay hopes at 1600. Mayor Anthony Fox of Charlotte, North Carolina is also a rising star, but he has to appeal to the locals in order to mobilize the base as well as draw the independents off the fence in favor of Obama in November.
If tonight is as carefully choreographed as Day One, Romney has to begin to get worried with the effective narrative being woven together. Solidarity in a party amidst the fact of being outspent, out-gunned and attacked from every side with the sole purpose of defeating you is huge. The Dems have a great opportunity to seal the deal in November in another historic photo finish. Romney on the other hand can’t win for losing.
If team Romney wins, it will be said that he bought it with the help of every bigot, hater and racist with corporate dollars and a mountain of lies. If he loses, it will be said it was because of all those same things which facilitated the loss. With history at his back and the Oval in front of him, I am certain he would be able to live with the former.
Money be damned, Obama and the liberal media will do all they can to ensure there will never be a President Romney. That’s my story and u sticking to it.
PoliticianNextDoor.com
Antron Johnson
DNC DAY 1: “…backbone…”
On Day 1 of the Democratic National Convention being held by the Democrats down in Charlotte, N.C., the line up was one not to be reckoned with in comparison to the party the GOP held down in Tampa just under a week ago. The night was about taking ownership of the party message and to shut sown the detractors of Obama’s gains.
Health and Human Services Secretary, Katherine Sebelius, took ownership of the once derogatory term “ObamaCare”, which is officially known as the Affordable Care Act (ACA). She called the term a “badge of honor”. Much of the night would follow this path with a subtle defiance to anyone who would question their leader!
A tribute earlier in the evening for the former Lion of the Senate, the late Ted Kennedy was a moving memorial to the life and fight of the Kennedy matriarch. Not without some controversy however, the tribute highlighted footage with Kennedy battling against Mitt Romney in the 1994 election for the Massachusetts Senate seat. GOP loyals believe Dems took an unfair swipe at Romney with the old footage…and they were taking a swipe, unfair? Not so sure.
Governor Deval Patrick of Massachusetts moved the crowd with his tough love speech to the convention delegates. “If we want to win elections in November and keep our country moving forward, if we want the privilege to lead, it’s time for Democrats to grow a backbone and stand up for what we believe. He went on to say, “Quit waiting for the pundits or polls or super PACs to tell us who the next president or senator or congressman is going to be”…“We’re Americans. We shape our own future”.
A new up and coming, and standby, he will be a part of the DNC forward trajectory in the future, Julian Castro, current Mayor San Antonio, TX. As the keynote speaker he spoke of the opportunity in America that is severely lacking and dangerously in jeopardy of extinction.
The night was carried by the President’s closest ally, his wife, First Lady of the United States of America (FLOTUS) who went beyond simply reintroducing the President to the base, but she merged the candidate Obama and his then spouse (herself, a nervous political wife, concerned mom) with President Obama and his First Lady (herself, a confident voice in his ear, dedicated mother for all of america’s children).
She made an emotional connection that came through tonight as opposed to her first national speech from four years ago. In 2008, Mrs. Obama spoke of her husband’s “hope and change” mantra, however this year, just nearly four years later, she reiterated that change is happening through the daily sacrifice of everyday hard working Americans.
She explained why she was still in love with her husband. An effective statements he made was, “being president doesn’t change who you are, being president reveals who you are”. Immediately that message hits home in a way that most can identify. Regardless of what your politics are, this was a good speech. Even republicans lit up the twitter-verse praising the speech as effective.
Day 1 was on target to building the over-arching message of the Dems. Michelle Obama four years ago was thought by some to be a liability, yet today, she was clearly their ace. Tomorrow, you will see Bill Clinton walk that same path. He was also considered a liability, tomorrow, he is their ace. Reports show, Team Obama has not even asked for a copy of Clinton’s speech; this show, how far this team has come.
Another point which was obvious to any observer, the GOP convention seemed to be less about Romney and more about the speaker of the moment. Everyone, every Governor, every leader, every hopeful, discussed themselves or the anti Obama message when they should have taken advantage of the opportunity they had with the microphone and talked up pro Romney policies.
Tonight, the Dems offered a full throated message of support for the President. Not sure why it has taken so long for these dems or any Dems for that matter to offer this strong support for Obama, however better late sometimes than never. Every speaker spoke for Obama only. They argued forcefully for the President’s re-election. It’s not a perfect world, but tonight the Dems had a perfect night! That’s my story and u sticking to it.
PoliticianNextDoor.com
Antron Johnson











