Are the numbers there for a victory? If you are the Dems, what are you looking for to trend a possible winning November ballot? Each election cycle, both parties put forth their best representation, allegedly, one that would likely carry the party platform or vision. Sometimes, as it was in 2008, the party laid out a path for The Clintons, but there was something brewing on the south side of Chicago that no one had ever calculated.
In 2000, with all things being equal, Bush surpassed Vice President Al Gore in Florida with a dimple and pregnant chad count that tilted the view of history. Say whatever you want about the Bush brothers stealing a win in Florida, but the blame should go entirely on Mr. Gore himself. The math was fuzzy long before Florida. It was fuzzy when Gore lost his own home state after sitting in the Vice President’s mansion for 8 years; after helping Bill Clinton steer the economy to prosperity, he didn’t figure his own home into the winning strategy. Had he won the state of Tennessee, Florida would have unnecessary.
In 2004, Senator John Kerry didn’t invest enough time and treasure in Ohio. Sure, there was a debacle with voting machines, long lines and etc. However the entire ‘Swiftboat campaign and discussions about his snooty wealthy wife threw Kerry out off message and made him too timid to attack.
In every case, these candidates had missed opportunities to get the right number. What tanks the campaigns is there inability to get outside of their own bubble of information. The Clinton machine failed Hillary, Gore’s consultants advised him wrong as they appeared to be running FROM Lewinsky instead of FOR The White House. It cost him greatly. Bill rebounded, Gore makes environmental videos. Go figure.
What numbers trap awaits Obama, if any? Can his team keep him outside of their own number crunching universe of babbling statistics and actuarial anecdotes? November is approaching fast and the GOP wants desperately to dethrone The House of Obama. If you throw the Clintons in there, republicans can get two for the bargain price of one.
The GOP is not safe by any means. The polls show them hanging tough, but 4-5% points consistently behind Obama is still a loss for Romney in November if he doesn’t pick it up and soon. those on the right have there own share of numbers numbness. The are struggling through an electorate that no longer blames any of the Bushes, but yet they haven’t forgotten.
This is why it was decided long ago in the heat of the primaries that none of the Bush Family would be seen ANYWHERE. They don’t do interviews there is no thinking back or reminiscing about the Bush Dynasty, nothing; good try, but the voters have not forgotten.
John Boehner, the Speaker of the House even acknowledged on yesterday that his party’s problems with minority voters is systemic and cannot be fixed overnight. But here’s the kicker, he said the economy would depress their turnout on Election Day for both sides. Boehner went onto say, “They might not show up to vote for our candidate, but I’d suggest to you they won’t show up for the president either,” he said.
Even if the conservatives are not deep in the numbers, Boehner is. He is figuring on a low turnout at the polls. He is betting Romney’s fortunes and his next legislative agenda on a “depressed” electorate. Who thinks that wasn’t the plan the whole time? Simply obstruct, divide and conquer.
That’s my story and um sticking to it.